Pres 2012: My Romney VP Prediction

Okay, instead of writing anything really heavy today I thought I’d take a little break and do something kind of fun.  Yes, I’m a partisan, a progressive fire breather, and all that other stuff, but above all else I have always been, and shall ever remain, a political nerd.  And of course, part of that includes making predictions on things like who the VP nominees are going to be.  So I thought I’d throw my prediction out there for Romney’s VP before it’s made, just for fun.

Now, before I get into this I should say that my track record on this sort of thing would be considered mixed at best.  I nailed the Edwards selection in ’04, but I was seriously off my game in ’08.  I had Sebelius pegged for Obama’s running mate and was really surprised by the Biden selection.  For McCain, I figured Joe Lieberman, and if Game Change is to be believed that is who McCain really wanted in the first place before his advisers convinced him he needed to shake up the race.  But yeah, my record here is mixed at best.  (However, to my credit I guess I got the last two Supreme Court nominees right.)

The problem with making a prediction like this is you’re trying to get inside the head of one person-the presidential nominee.  There’s a lot of stuff that goes into a selection like this, and besides the usual stuff-geography, balancing the ticket vs. reinforcing it, adding foreign policy credentials, etc.-things that aren’t so easily quantified, like personal chemistry also go into the mix when it comes to making this decision.  So again, this is just for fun, and I’d encourage anyone who wants to chime in with their own predictions here to do so in the comments.  Let’s see who gets it right, if anyone.

So anyway, here’s my prediction on who Mitt Romney will select as his running mate-Ohio Senator Rob Portman.

Why am I betting on Portman?  Because, speaking analytically, he’s a safe, conventional, low risk choice for the Romney campaign, and I’d bet that’s exactly how Romney and his team want to play it.  The campaign has already signaled that they’re looking for a sort of anti-Palin, defined as “an incredibly boring white guy”  He’s from Ohio, a key swing state that Romney needs to win but has lagged behind in almost every poll of the state to date.  He doesn’t seem to be particularly gaffe prone or controversial.  And on top of all that he and Romney seem to have a bit of chemistry.  (Please do not ask me how a human being can have any “chemistry” with Mitt Romney…it is well beyond me to figure that out.)  There are of course some draw backs, again, speaking analytically here-his work in the Bush Administration chief among them.

So again, this is the guy I’m betting on, just for fun.  Let’s see if I’m right, and feel free to add your comments below.

And while we’re on the subjects of VPs, no, I do not believe for an instant that President Obama will replace Joe Biden with Hillary Clinton.  I think that’s just wishful thinking from Secretary Clinton’s large and loyal fan base that doesn’t amount to a hill of beans in the grand scheme of things.  But again, if you think I’m wrong on that and have a different take, feel free to weigh in down in the comments.  Again, this is all just for fun.

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