Last week a poll showed that general election voters just don’t seem to like him very much. It wasn’t overwhelming, but Perry only retained a 23 percent favorability rating in a national poll done by ABC News and the Washington Post. Perry was viewed negatively by 31 percent, giving him an underwater overall score while a large portion of the general electorate had no opinion. President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney each ran even on their ratings. Then, Quinnipiac University polling found a similar trend: voters were split on Obama and Romney, but Perry was maintaining a negative rating in the important swing state of Pennsylvania.
But on Thursday things may have continued downward for Perry on the popularity front. A new Public Policy Polling (D) survey of Florida showed that a large majority of state voters, 58 percent, see Perry unfavorably, versus only 29 percent. Again, President Obama and Romney are the two most liked of the candidates polled.
Not surprisingly, the Presidential match-ups reflect this trend: Romney is only down one to Obama, 46 -45, and Perry is bested by seven points with Obama getting a majority, 50 – 43. Both Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) make it a closer race against Obama than Perry, with Paul actually coming within one point. The results reflect another Quinnipiac poll of Florida that was released last week showing Romney the much stronger candidate against Obama.
Oh but there’s more. Not only has Perry become unelectable in a general election match up, but he’s starting to have problems with his base:
It doesn’t take a long look within the numbers to see why Perry’s popularity is struggling. The Texas Gov. has problems with both with his base and with independents. 29 percent of Republicans in the poll see him unfavorably, with only a slightly majority of 52 percent in positive column. And Perry tanked with unaffiliated voters in the poll, earning positive marks from only 22 percent versus 61 percent who very him negatively.
That would be the result of being too nice to immigrants and having once endorsed Al Gore I’m sure…
Now, I would be celebrating right now over the looming prospects of getting a beer from my buddy Jeff, but sadly my gal Crazy Michelle hasn’t shown any ability to pick herself up off the ground as of yet. There’s still time for her to turn that around, and an Iowa victory for her would change the game, but with GOP money men trying to get Chris Christie (who if anything is one of the more liberal candidates they could recruit-for a Republican that is, which isn’t saying much), with Herman Cain surging for the moment at least (who knows if he can sustain that), and with Mitt Romney holding to his electability argument, there’s a pretty good chance that the GOP nomination could go to someone else, something I don’t think we ever ironed out in the bet details. Regardless, Romney doesn’t seem to be gaining anything from Perry’s rapid demise:
The polls suggest that Rick Perry’s struggles in the debate — amplified by a storm of skepticism among influential Republicans — have taken a bite out of his numbers. But the spoils seem to have gone mainly to other conservative candidates in the race, rather than Mr. Romney.
The candidate that unifies the right wing of the party in the early states will defeat Mitt Romney. Is it going to be Crazy Michelle? Things look bleak for her right now but if she manages to win Iowa it will be a game changer at this point, though I’m not quite as confident in that happening as I was a month ago. Could it actually be Herman Cain? Hard to say. The teabaggers love him, but I have to question what he’s got going for him beyond solid debate performances. Namely, I’m not sure what kind of organization he’s got on the ground in key states. Could Perry make a comeback? Maybe, but I’m betting on a downward spiral considering his past debate performances, stupid comments, and the fact that he really hasn’t been hit hard on the right just yet. Could the moderate Christie jump in and suck up those voters on the right? Doubtful-if anything, he hurts Romney assuming he gets in. So this whole thing is still a mess, and we could see a brutal primary once the actual voting begins. Fun times!
As “bold” as I was saying Perry would be the sleeper pick for the Rethug nomination back in early Feb, I’m going to double-down and stick with the pick, despite the recent flubbery out of the candidate and his campaign.
In the end, the hammy-fisted Christie isn’t going to jump in, your pal Bachmann simply plays to too narrow a constituency and is mostly irrelevant at this point, and the ol’ Tex gov has yet to use his Mormon Card against the far-more-prepared-for-primetime Romney, who I still say cannot win out with the way the GOP has cornered itself in with all the far right rhetoric of the past several years.
It’s going to be interesting, to say the least.
Jeff Woodmansee
Perry is toast. His name will be forever remembered with the word “N!@@&%head”.
I still think it will be Romney. The GOP will “hold its nose” for him. It’s too late for Christie, Bachmann is beyond crazy, and Cain isn’t ready either. No other candidate is even close. It’s a shame that they can’t see that Huntsman is the best thing they’ve got.
I think Cain may earn himself a VP slot with Romney, especially if he shows strong in the South. I’d wager a Romney-Cain ticket if I had too.
I don’t think the GOP veep pick will come from the current presidential field. The nominee will either pick an up-and-coming type (Thune, McConnell…Rubio?) or a type that comes from an up-and-coming demographic (hispanics).
Isn’t it crazy how all of us on the left can’t get enough Huntsman? It’s a shame he plays for the wrong team.
Perry was bound to fall from his meteoric rise (though I didn’t forsee him stumbling quite this bad). That said, I still don’t see anyone else who’ll be able to beat him in Iowa. Win there, finish second to Romney in NH, win South Carolina…the path is still there. Front-runner Mitt absolutely cannot win two of the first three primaries, and the narrative that he’s “no longer the frontrunner” can be told.
We shall see…