For awhile now, I’ve been thinking the GOP 2012 nominee would be Sarah Palin. The tea party support seemed to be consolidating into a block that was hers for the asking, and there’s no way Mitt Romney was going to emerge as the nominee in this incarnation of the Republican Party without a bruising fight. Now though, I’m starting to think she’s waited to long and that Michelle Bachmann, who I’d previously dismissed as a pale stand in for Palin, has stolen her thunder.
At this point, she’s surged to first place in Iowa in the polls, and that lead could be larger than it appears at first glance. Iowa is tailor made for Bachmann, who’s originally from there and has appeal to the Religious Right and Teabagger factions so prominent there where as flip flopping Mormon Mitt Romney does not. Not one but two, count ‘em-two, polls have shown her coming in second in New Hampshire, a state that Romney will probably win. However, Bachmann doesn’t need to win that state to do well, just do better than expected, in order to beat Romney in the expectations/momentum game. From there, you can bet Romney counts on Nevada, with its heavily Mormon population while Bachmann grabs South Carolina. Step back from that a bit and you see a race that’s looking much like the ’08 Dem primaries, with Bachmann playing Obama (bet she’d love to hear that) to Romney’s Hillary Clinton, and we all remember how that worked out. What’s more, it’s looking like Crazy Michelle could win Florida, and if she pulls that off then it’s pretty much a sure thing for her.
No one else in the Republican primary is gaining this kind of traction and the teabaggers have effectively taken over the party. Bachmann is now the insurgent against the establishment choice, and with right wing loons like Christine O’Donnell beating beloved establishment Republicans in allegedly moderate states like Delaware last year I wouldn’t be the bit surprised to see her win some totally unexpected victories. The only wild card now is what Palin does and how that effects the race, but I’m betting it’s too little too late and that Sarah will become this year’s Fred Thompson in a dress.
Looks like we found the Mad Hatter for that Tea Party.
I hope she does get the nomination, and that the American voters then realize that whe will be a puppet for her husband.
I just don’t think she will be the nominee. I’m thinking Romney will win out eventually.
I don’t think she has a chance of becoming the nominee. So far I would say Gingrich is off to a poor start. Bachmann has momentum in the ever important Iowa, but that momentum is earlier and can change directions at anytime, not to mention that is where she is from. Romney is probably a front runner, but I would not count out Pawlenty. We are yet to see how this thing is going to go.
If Romney becomes the nominee, it will only be after a bruising primary battle and then they’d be stuck with a John Kerry like nominee that would leave their base unenthused. Romneycare isn’t going away, and they’ll beat the hell out of him with it.
Pawlenty’s not going to make it past Iowa. Gingrich isn’t a serious candidate. I guess Perry could be a serious candidate but I’m betting he’ll flop. Honestly, unless Palin gets in and does well enough to split the teabagger vote, I don’t see anything that will stop Bachmann from becoming the anti-Romney.
She’s certainly flavor of the month right now, and stands a great shot at winning Iowa, but eventually all of these side distractions and her tendency to make major gaffes will come to hurt her. I really think the GOP will fall all over themselves about TX Gov. Rick Perry by Labor Day — he’s the one Repug that can pull together the three legs of their party: religious/social conservatives, big business (old guard GOP), and the Tea Party Crazies.
That said, with Bachmann proving far more formidable than many of us might’ve guessed, and because she could very well win Iowa, I think there’s a very good shot she still ends up on the ticket with Perry in the end.
Care to make a friendly wager, DM?