So, Obama’s dead meat in two years right? Well, some early polls out of two key battlegrounds Republicans will have to win in order to take the White House are out and they don’t look too bad for the President.
First off, there’s Virginia:
In the 2008 election, Obama became the first Democratic president to take Virginia since Lyndon Johnson. In the wake of speculation that this would not be repeated in 2012, PPP surveyed state voters. The results? Obama is found leading all four Republican frontrunners by at least five points.
When matched up against Mitt Romney, Obama has a 48%-43% advantage. His lead is an identical five points against Mike Huckabee (49%-44%). Against both Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, that lead grows to 11 points — 51%-40% against Palin, 52%-41% against Gingrich.
Even more heartening, Obama’s not looking too shabby in North Carolina either:
In 2008, President Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win North Carolina since the mid-1970s. And according to a newly released PPP survey, he’s well-positioned once again in this historically red state.
The early survey shows Obama faring well against Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, while hanging close with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. The survey finds:
- Obama leading Palin 48%-43%
- Obama ahead of Gingrich 46%-45%
- Obama and Romney tied at 44%-44%
- Huckabee leading Obama 48%-44%
If these two states are competitive and stay that way, then things aren’t as bad as we may have thought. In 2010, the base of the party didn’t turn out. In 2012, that most likely won’t be a problem. Still, a lot can happen, including some really bad stuff. The President, Democrats, and activists are going to have to make sure Obama gets credit for the good he’s done, that more good things happen despite the odds, and that every bad thing that happens get hung around the necks of the Republicans like a bloody albatross. It wouldn’t hurt if the Republican nomination went to one of the least electable candidates either and Democrats would be wise to give certain candidates material to beat the hell out of the more electable ones with. (Yes, I know, Democrats are supposed to always think of the greater good and play nice while the Republicans are hacking us to death with meat cleavers. Forget that-we need to play to win.)
A few observations about the potential candidates. One, I doubt Romney will be the nominee. He has “Romney Care”, which is the exact same thing as the healthcare reform bill passed this year for all intents and purposes, right down to the individual mandate. The teabaggers will beat the tar out of him for that. As far as Gingrich goes, well, I’m just curious how many secretaries he’s been banging of late…though to my knowledge is wife is in good health so the chance of him divorcing her may be pretty low. Beyond that, I wouldn’t be surprised if his flirtation with running for President was more about keeping his name in the news. That’s pretty much all he cares about. The one I want to be the candidate is Sarah Palin. She’s a walking disaster, and the Republican establishment knows it. Still, the teabaggers love her, so she’s a major player for the nomination. She’ll have to win Iowa to do that-if she stumbles there it’s over, so keep your fingers crossed. Oh, and if we have to make sure that she and the others have pleny of dirt on our former Governor to do it, then hey, I don’t mind helping out with that.
This of course is all tentative. There could well be other names in the mix, though beyond maybe Haley Barbour and John Thune I don’t expect a great number of people that will matter. A lot will depend on the economy. Still, if Sarah Palin or someone similar is the nominee, I will sleep a whole lot better. Still, I want to see some more state by state polling. These numbers though have got me excited.