More evidence this morning confirming the argument we’ve been making for the past few weeks – the Republican wave has crested, and a new dynamic in election 2010 has taken hold. New Rasmussen and Washington Post polls each show a 7 point swing towards the Democrats in the national Congressional Generic in the past few weeks. As we wrote yesterday this movement tracks similar movement seen in other polls released over the past few days, indicating that the Democrats have made substantial improvement in their position over the past month.
The national media had been a little slow to acknowledge the significance of the dramatic change in the election but has clearly come around.
You know things are looking pretty good for Democrats when Rasmussen can’t spin things for the Republicans. Doing their little victory dance back in August and September probably didn’t help them much. Of course, nominating the witch up in Delaware probably didn’t either. And there’s still plenty of time to go. Ask James Carville:
“This is not a fool’s errand. In the 1998 election, we conducted national polls starting in September to see if Democrats could push back against the Republican overreach on Ken Starr and impeachment, as Democrats faced the prospect of historic losses in both the House and Sen- ate. Only two weeks before the election did the plates shift and a Democratic counter-message on impeachment became effective in our polls. In the end, Democrats lost no net seats in Senate, gained five House seats and Newt Gingrich resigned.”
Think about what happens here if Democrats hang on, despite everything that’s happened and has come up this cycle. Don’t get me wrong, things could still go very bad for us, but psychologically I think we’re prepared for it. The Republicans/teabaggers ain’t, and if they don’t make the massive gains that have, to this point, been predicted, then they’re going to collide with the narrative and it won’t be pretty. At this point the bar is really high for their side. Ours isn’t. All Democrats have to do is survive this election cycle at this point to outperform expectations, and if we do that then we’ll get to watch all kinds of fun playing out on the other side of the isle.