In continuing to look at the potential candidates to succeed Vic Snyder, I thought I’d start by taking a look at the one candidate that really thrills me to think about, State Senator Joyce Elliott.

Now let’s have this conversation out openly and honestly.  Senator Elliott is an exellent representative and a great progressive, but there are reasons to question her ability to win this district, and we all know why-race and ideology.  The second was President Obama’s best district in Arkansas, but he still lost it by nine points.  There is of course deep seated racism and reluctance to vote for African American candidates in some segments of Arkansas, even among so called Democrats, and the Republicans have a top tier recruit in Tim Griffin.  Then you have to factor in sourness towards Obama and national Democrats found heavily in Arkansas, a product of both the President’s indifference to connecting to voters here and of our Democratic establishment refusal to respect voters by talking to them like adults and their cowardly refusal to stand up to the teabaggers and the rest of the rabid right.  It’s all plenty of reason to give any of us pause when considering such a promising progressive as Elliott.

But there are other things to consider.  I don’t believe for an instant that a qualified African American that’s capable on the stump and on the trail is locked out of winning a significan portion of white voters.  When I was cutting my teeth in St. Francis County politics I saw time and time again where white voters would sing the praises of black candidates they had gotten to know and like, often while repeating garbage about Obama being a Muslim or Michelle Obama being unpratriotic or other such dribble.  The thing is, Obama didn’t give white voters in Arkansas a chance to get to know him, and while he probably still wouldn’t have carried the state he certainly would have done markedly better than he did if he had actually shown us any respect or care for us by campaigning here.  More importanly, a native Arkansan like Elliott would have to do that, and thus could avoid that pitfall.

Further, we have to consider the district itself.  Obama would Pulaski County, and Elliott could easily repeat that success.  In this low turnout off year, her presence on the ballot would likewise enthuse the Democratic base, particularly African Americans who don’t always turn out in high numbers on off years, statistically speaking.  Many times in the past Snyder was carried along by Pulaski by itself, losing outside the district.  Elliott’s challenge then is to drive up huge numbers in Pulaski while not being totally destroyed everywhere else.  It’ll be tough, but with a strong campaign to match a strong candidate, I think she can pull it off.

So does her campaign have potential outside Pulaski?  Maybe.  For example, she’s been a strong protector of Lake Maumelle, which is a major source of drinking water in the second district, and that’s just one of many bright spots on her record.  Still, you can count on Rove’s boy Griffin to throw out every racist dog whistle there is (though if he does go that route I, for one, will certainly be working to hang that ugly albatross around his neck) and we’d no doub here about Elliott’s past effort to provide the children of undocumented immigrants in state college tuition.  However, that kind of immigrant baiting didn’t work for Jim Holt or for any other right wing nut I can think of.  Also, that bill was supported by none other than Mike Huckabee.  So if Elliott sticks to her guns on that one I think she can defend herself on that front.

Finally, I want to show you a little bit of what Elliott is made of.  This is her, explaining in her straight forward, respectful, likeable fashion, what EFCA really does:

That’s the kind of straight forward, honest approach Democrats are going to have to use if we’re to undo all the lies the right wing has polluted the minds’ of Arkansans with. Further, she knows how to speak to her constituens and use her record and contacts to her advantage, as seen in this ad:

Granted, she’ll have to adapt her message to appeal beyond Little Rock, but still and yet she’s proven herself capable.

I am nowhere near deciding who I’d support on this one. But Elliot appeals to me in many ways. Granted, her victory would not be a sure thing, but there is a path to victory for her. And if she is the nominee, this Democrat, for one, would be thrilled to go knocking on doors and making phone calls. I’m looking forward to seeing if she decides to run (she’s said she’s considering it), and what implications it holds for the Democratic party.

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