John Brummett has a pretty good piece up about the frustration with the Arkansas Democratic primary for US Senate.
To be blunt: She is the guiltier party here. These mailers that come into my home from her campaign are practically pornographic in their vile absurdity, latching on to any little thing — even a simple acknowledging from Bill Halter that Social Security needs in the long run to take in more money and pay out less — to seek to nearly criminalize the guy. By the way: Lincoln said years ago that putting some portion of jacked-up Social Security money into the stock market, as proposed by Democratic president Bill Clinton for whom Halter was merely working, and over which she now applies scare tactics to Halter, was an idea worth considering. Halter’s main transgression has been trashing her for her responsible vote for the bailout and pretending he could have succeeded where no one else could in getting the urgent vote delayed for tough amendments. Yeah, sure. Bill Halter was going to stop that train.
However, Brummett’s only argument for not voting for Halter is conventional wisdom at its worst:
I think a vote for Halter would be, in effect, a vote for Republicanization of the seat, since Halter’s associative liberalism kills him for November in a reddening state considering the current mood.
Blanche Lincoln (D) 42 (43)
John Boozman (R) 52 (50)
Bill Halter (D) 42 (41)
John Boozman (R) 47 (48)
Halter -5, Lincoln -10
Blanche Lincoln (D) 40 (42)
Kim Hendren (R) 50 (49)
Bill Halter (D) 43 (43)
Kim Hendren (R) 45 (46)
Halter -2, Lincoln -10
Blanche Lincoln (D) 40 (41)
Gilbert Baker (R) 47 (48)
Bill Halter (D) 43 (43)
Gilbert Baker (R) 44 (45)
Halter -1, Lincoln -7
Blanche Lincoln (D) 42 (43)
Curtis Coleman (R) 46 (46)
Bill Halter (D) 43 (44)
Curtis Coleman (R) 41 (43)
Halter +2, Lincoln -4
Halter consistently (and for months) outperforms Blanche Lincoln against the Republicans even with all his “liberal” positions. Halter has actually improved despite all the negative stuff Lincoln has been throwing out there about how “liberal” he is. He remains ahead of Lincoln and Boozman in favorability numbers.
The truth is that ideology has very little to do with it. Is reforming Wall Street really all that “liberal”? Is stopping bailouts for the big banks really all that “liberal”? Is standing up for Arkansan working families really all that “liberal”? Or is it just the right thing to do for Arkansans? If this race is proving anything, it is that being more progressive is not a problem in this state. As long as you are representing Arkansans and not special interests, you do well.
On his facebook page, Chad Causey is touting the endorsement of the Arkansas Education Association. This makes the second major Arkansas union, after the AFL-CIO, that has decided to ignore Chad Causey’s opposition to both health care reform and the Employee Free Choice Act and endorse him anyway. And this with a Democrat in the field, David Cook, who supports both positions. The AFL-CIO, of course, supported health care reform and supports EFCA. I couldn’t find the NEA’s position on health care, but they do support EFCA. My question is why are they backing a candidate that is against those issues, and I’m contacting both unions directly to ask:
1) What is the union’s stated reason for endorsing Chad Causey above the other Democrats in the feild?
2) What is the union’s statement on Causey’s opposition to health care reform and EFCA?
It’s nothing new, just the same old scare tactic on Bill Halter and social security privatization that has been debunked again and again…and again…and again….and again…and, well, you get the point.
Seriously, is there no bit of sleeze that Blanche Lincoln won’t sink to these days? Bill Halter takes down that Bailout Blanche crap. He reaches out to her to end the negative campaigning. He explains he doesn’t have control over outside groups (duh!). But she just keeps on telling nasty lies.
Seriously, how much contempt does she have for her constituents? I’m serious-these lies have been debunked time and time again, but she clearly thinks they’re dumb enough to believe them. For that (and plenty more) she doesn’t deserve reelection.
I’m officially in the running at Democracy for America for a Netroots Nation scholarship. Netroots Nation is the ultimate get together for progressive activists, and I’m hoping to represent Blue Arkansas (and Arkansas progressives in general) on a panel discussion. But, financially, I’m strapped for the trip, and that’s why I need your votes. Democracy for America is rewarding scholarships to progressive activists, forty in all, to go out to Las Vegas. The top 3 vote getters in each of the three rounds automatically qualify, and if I can make it to the top tier for the second or third (looks out of reach for the first) it greatly improves my chances.
So I’m asking for your votes. If you like the work that we at Blue Arkansas are delivering, please, join or login to Democracy For America, and cast your vote for me, ARDem. The grassroots in Arkansas has come a long way in less than a year, and I like to think that Blue Arkansas (and the help we’ve gotten from everyone along the way) has had something to do with that. But this is just the beginning. And I’d like to go to Netroots Nation in part to do the networking necessary to A) build upon and improve upon our successes and failures here, and B) share what we’ve done with others in tough states like Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, and South Carolina.
So come on guys, I need your help here, and if I’m lucky enough to get it I promise you I’ll do Arkansas progressives proud in Vegas.
Blanche Lincoln (D) 43 (45)
Bill Halter (D) 35 (33)
Other 7 (6)
Undecided 15 (16)
Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion among likely Democratic primary voters
Lincoln 59/33/8 (65/31/4)
Halter 66/14/20 (69/11/23)
The biggest news here is that Halter seems to be taking support away from Lincoln without the aid of undecideds. This is a major game changer for this election. With her support sinking to 43%, Lincoln would now have to get half of the undecideds (which tend to break for the challenger) in order to get to 50%. More analysis on this poll later.
The “Arkansas Election Line” has a new analysis of the race for Arkansas’ first congressional district. Of particular importance to Democrats is the update from “toss up” to “Leans Wooldridge.”
Since our first rating in this race, we have learned from both public and private polls that Tim Wooldridge has a stronger name identification than his opponents. He begins from a stronger starting point than the other candidates in the race.
Wooldridge also had a competitive quarter of fundraising in the first quarter, which compliments his advantage.
No doubt that Wooldridge has the tactical advantage. However, David Cook has the advantage with voters who know he has the better policy positions. They note that David Cook could shake things up in this race:
David Cook’s candidacy could also be a factor in the race. He’s likable and good on the stump and he’s unabashedly Democratic in his positions. His life story is compelling, too, and he has registered slightly above Causey and Bryles in earlier polls.
Blanche Lincoln apparently got the hint that she might not want to be assossiated with alleged white collar criminals.
Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s campaign announced the decision to donate all of the Democrat’s contributions from Goldman Sachs this cycle to charity. The money’s going to the Arkansas Hunger Relief Alliance — because, Lincoln said “we must take every opportunity to support the work of hunger relief organizations in Arkansas.” Lincoln’s primary challenger, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, had been hammering her over the donations.
So all that tough talk about not giving up the donations to charity, as Bill Halter said she should, and now here she is finally doing the right thing. Heh.
The oil is escaping from two leaks in a drilling pipe about 5,000 feet below the surface. The leaks threaten hundreds of miles of coastline in four states, with waters that are home to dolphins, sea birds, and prime fishing and tourism areas.
If crews cannot stop the leak quickly, they might need to drill another well to redirect the oil, a laborious process that could take weeks while oil washes up along a broad stretch of shore, from the white-sand beaches of Florida’s Panhandle to the swamps of Louisiana. The oil spill already stretches across more than 1,800 square miles of water in the Gulf Of Mexico, according to the Coast Guard.
Coast Guard crews raced to protect the Gulf of Mexico coastline Monday as a remote sub tried to shut off an underwater oil well that’s gushing 42,000 gallons a day from the site of a wrecked drilling platform.
What crews are dealing with is an oil spill from the explosion that continues to grow in the Gulf of Mexico. A controlled attempt to burn off part of the spill started Wednesday evening, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
The burn-off is part of the effort to prevent the spread of oil from an underwater well that was broken open when the drill rig Deepwater Horizon blew up and sank last week. The slick stretched about 100 miles across the north-central Gulf on Wednesday afternoon and had advanced to within 16 miles of the mouth of the Mississippi River, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
All this adds in abundance to the comparitively trivial reasons I gave for being upset about Obama’s proposal to expand offshore drilling to get Republican support for an energy bill that they won’t back no matter what. And when you consider that this is the cost for something that will not address our energy needs, I’d say we have every reason to contact the White House and tell President Obama to drop his proposal for more offshore drilling, no matter what the Republicans think.
So he said it in the first debate. Hmmm…Let’s look at that clip shall we?
Notice two things. He said that IN THE PAST a balanced approach was used to shore up social security and advocating continuing that in the future. Second, he pointed out that the program isn’t really in crisis so it’s not going to need any dramatic tinkering. Seriously, how dumb are the Lincoln campaign people that made this? Did they really think that no one would look it up and let people watch it side by side?
Update: Apparently someone’s a jackass and thinks we shouldn’t be embedding video of the debate. So go watch it on youtube.
Three times now, THREE TIMES, the Republicans in the U.S. Senate have fillibustered Wall Street reform. In doing so, they’re showing again and again who they’re standing up for, and it ain’t ordinary Americans like you and me.
That’s why we can’t afford to elect a Republican in AR-01, or someone who’s Republican-lite. The only candidate in this race who has stood consistently against Wall Street and against the right wing war on poor, working, and middle-class Americans is David Cook, and that’s why we HAVE to elect him. All the other Democrats in this race are either willing to side with the Republicans on the issues that affect you and me or will fold under pressure when things start looking rough. But David Cook is different.
Representative Cook knew that when he was asked to take a stand on health care reform in the heat of that awful debate, with teabagger craziness on full display, he risked hurting himself, but he stood up for what he believed was right and for what he knew would help people in need regardless of the polls, standing up for health care reform and the public option. He knows that the big business community in Arkansas hates unions and will do anything to stop workers from organizing (and candidates who support that right), but he’s standing up for workers and the Employee Free Choice Act anyway. And he knew full well that it could hurt him if he took a stand on ENDA, but it didn’t stop him from tell me in our interview that he fully believes that no one should suffer from discrimination.
So if you want to see a man go to Washington who has courage and conviction, who will always stand up for you, me, and our friends and families rather than the folks running Wall Street and Washington, and will never forget where he came from or who got him to where he’s at, then you have to stand by David Cook in this election, vote for him, volunteer for him, and contribute to his campaign.
Word about a robopoll is making the rounds mainly from Arkansas Blog. We may be seeing the results sometime soon.
I received a robocall last night asking me about the Arkansas US Senate Democratic Primary. The poll seemed fair. It didn’t push you in any way. Although, I did notice one strange thing.
It asked if the candidates were Lincoln, Halter, or Morrison, who would I vote for?
I answered Halter.
Then it asked if the candidates were Lincoln and Morrison, who would I vote for?
I answered.
Then it asked if the candidates were Halter and Morrison, who would I vote for?
I answered Halter.
Then it went on for some demographics questions.
Notice an important question missing here? They did not ask who I would vote for if Morrison were not in the race. That seems to me to be the more obvious question to ask, not if my candidate were not in the race if I would vote for Morrison.
Anyway, if this is another Talk Business poll, they asked more questions than they said they did last time. They got my age and my race which was not included in the last poll. They will be able to weight it a little more now. Oh, and they did ask if i would be voting in the Democratic Primary or the Republican Primary on May 18th, so don’t attack them for not going after the right voters.
So why are they praising Senator Lincoln for supporting those mandates in this ad?
Simple. The Chamber of Commerce, and the big businesses it represents, are willing to lie to get what they want. It doesn’t matter to them whether American industry thrives or not. If they can make their profits another way, they’ll slit their own mothers’ throats to do it. Right now they’re playing it safe, standing up for a Democrat that’s clearly in their pocket and trying to get her through the primary. They’re scared of Bill Halter, and it’s showing. But you watch this. If Lincoln makes it through the primary, mark my words, they’ll throw her under the bus in favor of John Boozman. That’s just how they roll.
Lol, if this is going to be the way things roll in AR-02 I am feeling a bit better about our chances. Any Democrat will be the underdog against Tim Griffin this year, but I think he’s showing that his campaign skills leave something to be desired. Exhibit A:
Now remember, this ad is entitled “Grandfather”, and he starts off doing a good job talking about his grandfather’s military service (and a bit of his own), then strays off into “Nancy Pelosi! AAAAHHHHH!”
Now, two things on this. First, Republicans have run against Nancy Pelosi in two election cycles. It didn’t help, even in tough districts. She riles up die hard Republicans, but with most people she’s not the first thing on their minds. Second, does Tim Griffin really want to talk about fiscal responsibility? Especially after the hit job his former boss George Bush and the Republican party did on the federal budget after Bill Clinton got us out of the red? And really, does he want to talk about the Bush years at all considering it opens the door to conversation about the Attorney Firing Scandal and how Mr. Griffin got his old job through corruption and nepotism?
Things have been changing in Arkansas recently. Politico (and Lincoln herself) even wants you to believe that she is a lefty lefty left left left liberal. One national media outlet even recently claimed that this primary is the beginning of a comeback for Blanche Lincoln. That’s right, she is one tough comeback liberal lefty lady… according to some. Evidence shmevidence.
The Arkansas media knows better. There is a reason for these claims coming out now:
A reporter from Politico asked U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln on Saturday if Bill Halter was more liberal than she.
Her answer two weeks ago would have been pretty much this:
“Oh, yes. Just look at who’s behind him, national labor unions and moveon.org. I’ve always been a moderate, a centrist, a pragmatist, trying to represent the strong independent streak of Arkansas people. That’s why the national liberals have come after me. I think he’s more representative of an extreme national liberal agenda and that it’s an agenda not always in tune with Arkansas Democrats.”
That’s been the essence and mantra of Lincoln’s success over two decades in Arkansas politics. She’s a middle-of-the-roader who gets the business and farm vote while hanging on to traditional Democratic constituents such as African-Americans.
But here is what she said Saturday in answer to that question:
“No. He’s just trying to get elected.”
I don’t know which part of the answer was more jarring — that she wants to be a co-equal liberal with Halter or that she wants to downplay his genuine liberalism or that she believes it serves Halter’s victory prospects to be seen as more liberal.
How did we get to this point?
Well, if you have been paying attention, it is because Bill Halter’s message had been beating hers.
A union backer of Bill Halter responds concisely to the latest Blanche Lincoln smear ads trying to make something evil of union support of Halter and suggest some quid pro quo.
In response to Senator Lincoln’s latest ad:
Bill Halter has promised the AFL CIO that he will not abandon working families.
Lincoln has promised not to abandon the Walton family and John Ed Anthony.
Very simply, Halter’s message is that he will work for Arkansas families while Lincoln has long left them behind for special interests that work against them.
Lincoln is having a tough time trying to fight a message that Arkansas Democrats see as all too true. Lincoln has finally realized that she can’t abandon Arkansas Democrats and remain the nominee. That is why we saw an improved financial reform bill from her. However, this goes against everything we know about Lincoln. Why now? Pretty simple answer here… she is in a Democratic primary against someone who would have capitalized on any watering down of the bill or failure to make it stronger.
This causes a strange predicament for the long time centrist, buck the party Senator.
At the same time, Lincoln is trying to be anti-union, pro-business, liberal, centrist, anti-government, pro-government regulation, a 12 year incumbent and head of the ag committee, a Washington D.C. outsider, responsible for the cleaning up Wall-Street, and not responsible for helping to creating the problem in the first place.
However, Bill Halter is making sure blame goes to where it belongs. Blanche Lincoln voted to undo the Glass-Steagall act in 1999 effectively deregulating the financial system.
Video: Halter Scores Major Points in a Fiery Debate with Sen. Lincoln
And again this issue came up in a question about whether Lincoln has any blame for the problems in the financial market.
“I don’t disagree that we probably could have done that better,” Lincoln was forced to confess. She went on to say that she had no idea the problems created until she looked at it from “the rearview mirror” but that she now has produced “the toughest bill on Wall Street.”
“This is too much Washington behavior,” said Halter. “Claiming credit for addressing the problem after it has crashed the economy. There were plenty of warning signs here. The idea that people in Washington and on Wall Street and in the United States Senate did not know that this market had built up to ten and then hundreds of trillions of dollars? Why not? That’s ineffective oversight.”
Halter made the above statement at an untelevised debate on Saturday which nearly everyone who has commented on it says he won handily. (Update: Blake’s Think Tank has a good round up.)
Bill Halter won it by a wide margin on three accounts, mainly:
First, he challenged Blanche Lincoln to back down from mailers her campaign has sent putting his face in a pill bottle and accusing him of “shady drug deals,” and she wouldn’t. Her defense is that independent groups, unions, mainly, have attacked her, and that she must stand up for herself — a point she repeated to me as we discussed this after the debate. But the issue is not that she stands up for herself or fights back. It’s that those mailers were over the line. Innuendo. Smears. Creepy. “Unbecoming a U.S. senator,” as Halter said to her face, and I must agree.
Second, Halter hit her hard for taking Wall Street money while overseeing part of Wall Street’s activity as Senate Agriculture chariman, and Blanche responded, well, indelicately. She said there wasn’t anything wrong with taking money from soybean farmers, cotton growers, rice farmers. Her point was that Ag regulates those, too. But Halter is fairly smart and he knew to pounce on this unintended likening of Wall Street thieves and good East Arkansas farrmers. As a matter of politcal theater, he floored her by saying it wasn’t farmers who brought this country to economic collapse.
Third, Lincoln spent much of her time hammering that Halter won’t say yes or no on card check, or the Employee Free Choice Act. But Halter is right on this that card check is history and that negotiations have since turned to an incremental reform to give unions a better or fairer chance. Mark Pryor could confirm Halter on this, but he’s for Blanche and probably will say something on Blanche’s side instead in a few days. You see, Blanche wants to make sure the state Chamber of Commerce is sufficiently afraid of this union man in a right-to-work state. But they’re plenty afraid already.
Halter clearly has the momentum and is doing it in Arkansas by being pro-union, pro-Arkansan family, and anti-special interest. All while supporting such things that Lincoln would have filibustered, such as medicare buy ins and the public option, and beating her against the Republicans in general election polls.
All this and below is why the race has been moved to the “toss up” category.
Let’s be clear: this rating is not based upon one debate performance. It is based on the confluence of events occurring in this heated Senate race.
I believe Sen. Blanche Lincoln would win the race if it was today. But it’s not.
Lincoln still has great advantages in terms of ground game, party faithful, name ID, and money.
Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has sewn up many disaffected Democrats. He has momentum and he’s made this race competitive with money and message. We’ll see how well his microtargeting impacts his GOTV effort.
When we first analyzed this race, I was unsure how quickly Halter could implement a viable campaign strategy, raise money or convey a connecting message to voters. He’s done all three with varying degrees of success.
The argument that you can’t win in Arkansas and be more progressive is being thrown out the window. Even Blanche Lincoln realizes that. That is why she is suddenly shucking her centrist label for the liberal one.
If she survives, she will shuck the liberal one so fast for the general election, the right of center Blanche Lincoln will be back in full force.
If you still have any doubt about where Blanche Lincoln’s allegiances lie, the US Chamber of Commerce just released an ad and is buying up TV time in Arkansas to support her in the primary.
Patrick Kennedy’s campaign isn’t drawing much in the line of big name endorsements. Having met Patrick (and filmed a long delayed video which I swear I will put up this week!), I don’t think that bothers him much. And he came up with a nice little response to it, releasing his list of “VUPs” that have endorsed him.
I would also like to announce a small list of endorsements to counter Robbie Will “VIP” list of endorsements. My list consists of several VUP’s (Very Unimportant People).
Joe Laroy – Fry server at McDonalds
Kara Bernard – Single mom and nurse
Josh Johnson – Unemployed; former Iraq Veteran.
Chris Partlow – Construction worker and father of 3.
Bashir Davis – Assistant hospital tech.
Alex Timmerman – Sandwich handler at Quiznos
Torben Bynum – Aspiring R & B musician
Norma Cabbie – Bartender
It’s growing daily…
Personally, if I were running for office, and as you can tell by now my mouth gets me in too much trouble for that, this would seem like a great idea to me. Endorsements from state legislators and what not don’t really seem to matter unless A) they can deliver votes through some sort of organization or B) they reinforce the sense of momentum in a candidate’s direction. But rolling out a list of ordinary Americans/Arkansans supporting you is great PR. Personally, I’d rather roll out the endorsement of an unemployed Iraq vet, a bartender, and a fry cook than the endorsement of establishment politicians any day.
You gotta love a sense of humor in politics. Or, a reader writes in, “I don’t think its about a sense of humor or trying to be funny. I think it’s kind of genius in a terribly irrational, odd way.”
Ugh.
By the way, if you’re in the 2nd district, make sure you tune in for the debate at Philander Smith College in the Kendall Center at 7 p.m.
