This video is awesome! Now that you’ve had your reminder, contribute to Bill Halter’s campaign.

It really pains me to have to post this video.

Now, it’s no secret that I’ve really warmed to Ben Ponder these last few weeks.  He impressed me.  He still does in many ways.  We were beginning, here at Blue Arkansas, to discuss making an endorsement.  But this is just too big an issue to just say we simply disagree and while I can’t speak for the rest of the Blue Arkansas frontpagers, I think I know them well enough to know this is as much a deal killer with them as it is with me.  This is, frankly, a disappointment that can’t be shaken.

Let’s go through it, piece by piece.

First, it’s important to note that this video was taken before the health care reform vote.  The first thing out of Ben’s mouth is a little joke about how there would be a vote, “or not vote”, on that Sunday.  First, we all know there was a vote, and we, along with the folks at Talking Points Memo, have hashed all this out and how it was done.  Here, Ben was spreading misinformation on how Congress was going to proceed at a time when that was THE LAST THING Democrats needed.  Now, that could be just an honest mistake.  I could accept that explanation.  But to then say he was against Reconciliation to pass the bill, or, in reality, the bill’s fixer upper, when we literally had NO OTHER OPTIONS, that’s bad form.  A lot was riding on that vote-including the election here in AR-01.  Had health care reform died in Congress, there’d have been a lot of Democratic voters deciding that there was no reason to turn out to vote…yes even in Arkansas.  Besides that, after all we went through with this and all the fighting we’ve done against Blanche Lincoln, Marion Berry, and Mike Ross, I’m not interested in supporting someone who’s vote would have gone right along with them, regardless of the reasoning behind it.

Now, the most maddening thing about this whole video is that Ben makes clear that to a great extent he understands the problem.  He says himself there’s no excuse for us not to have the best health care system in the world and acknowledges that we don’t have that, but from there it kind of falls apart.  Now let me be clear.  I love his idea for making all health insurance companies work as non-profit cooperatives.  It’s a great idea and one that would work as a great fixer upper to the system going into place under the new law.  What’s more, he is absolutely 100% right about the negative aspects of the insurance mandate when he talks about how it’s going to make us all part of a captive market.  But then he strikes out.  First he knocks single-payer (nationalization as he refers to it) and then, in the same breath, says he’s against a public option/medicare expansion, without laying out any reasons why.  We’ve been over this time and time again here, most notably in my interview with Wendell Potter, and the public option is the best way to insure competition in the current system.  Now, to be fair, Ponder’s proposal on shifting to a non profit model for insurance companies might be an excellent substitute.  But there’s no guarantee he’ll get that, and I want assurances that he won’t make what he sees as the perfect the enemy of the good.

The points Ben makes about preventive care and improving face time with primary care physicians are spot on.  And I’m not opposed to health savings accounts if they’re part of a broader package.  But the way he talks about encouraging ownership of health (which I’ve heard him say before, but never quite like this) and people using the emergency room for primary care sounds almost callous.  These folks haven’t been lolly gagging into ER’s because they don’t take their health or the cost of health care seriously.  They’ve been having to do that because they couldn’t afford to do it any other way or get the insurance that would enable them to actually take care of their health care needs before they had to go to an emergency room, all of which is addressed by the law that Ponder says he would have opposed, the law he says we asked the wrong questions to reach.  The whole illogical circle is just plain maddening.  And speaking as someone who, out of college, had no insurance (still don’t) and had to pay bills from two ER trips when I should have gone to a clinic if I could have…trust me, no one else pays.  It took me a long time to pay those bills off so that they wouldn’t hurt my credit, and that was after I finally found a job and after a lot of nail biting over what my financial future held.

It’s always the person you like to ends up disappointing you the most.  This isn’t just another issue.  This is THE issue that spawned Blue Arkansas back when I was so frustrated over the actions of Blanche Lincoln and Mike Ross on health care reform.  This is the issue that we lobbied Congress over, that we worked to primary a U.S. Senator over, that we fought so hard for, that we got emotionally invested in as we digested the stories of the people whose very lives were hanging in the balance.  There is no way we, or at least I, can look the other way on this and agree to disagree, even when we were so, so close to getting in behind Ponder full force.  The worst thing about it is that Ben has excellent positions on education, the economy, and campaign finance reform, and is at least tolerant towards LGBT people enough that his other social conservative positions become tolerable.  But this is the big one, and none of us can rightly harp on Lincoln, Ross, Berry, Wills, and Causey while hyping someone who’s position is essentially the same for different reasons.

So what do we do now?  I don’t know.  I personally am wondering if David Cook is worth looking into.  I could still buckled down and vote for Ben-I do like the guy a lot and he does still impress me, but after this it will be a hard, bitter pill to swallow unless he can somehow mend the fence on this one.  An endorsement is out of the question now at this stage.  It’s a shame, Ponder was surging up to this point, mostly I think due to progressives disenchanted with Chad Causey, and both jsamuel and I were praising him for his leadership on the debates.  This, unless he can pull off some sort of miracle, breaks that momentum.

Between this and Obama’s offshore drilling announcement and the administration’s move away from cap and trade, this has been a disappointing day in a lot of ways.

Oh, and one last thing.  About that tort reform-if a doctor operates on me and leaves a sponge in my kidney, I want to see him filing for bankruptcy afterwards.  That’s all I’ll say on that.

Update: It didn’t take long for Ben to get back with me directly with an email. We had a little chat about health care and he says he plans to do a broader speech discussing the issue. I’m hoping he’ll at least express a willingness to support a public option if he can’t get his cooperatives proposal (which I again have to say that I like) passed. If he’s willing to recognize the good parts of the new law, express some openness on how to make it better, and doesn’t sign on to any repeal effort, I think I’d be willing to try to break bread over that.

Over the last week Bill Halter has been on the recieving end of over $500,000 dollars in donations from ActBlue contributions (a good portion directed there from the campaign itself) and from MoveOn.org contributions. Other groups giving include the PCCC and DailyKos.com. Note that these are actually large numbers of individuals donating at the behest of these groups, not money directly from these organizations. The donations continue to reflect a people powered movement with low average donation sizes. This is being spured on by the end of the quarter deadline tonight.

MoveOn is close to raising $500,000 all by itself in the last week. If you are thinking of giving a little yourself, pop on over to MoveOn.org or donate at the campaign’s ActBlue page.

The Ben Ponder campaign has got some videos up.

I like both of those videos. The first one is more of Ben’s high minded talk, which is great, but I think he needs to narrow it down a bit into specific issues. In the one on agriculture, he lays out a great argument for support for small farmers, which is much needed, though hopefully he’ll be willing to differentiate between small farmers and big agribusiness in the future.

So far I have had nothing but good things to say about Ben. I have another video I found though that has left a sour taste in my mouth. I don’t have time to post it now, but I will shortly, with commentary.

The Bill Halter campaign released a new video showing a good example of his message for the election. He wants to take the party back to its roots by representing Arkansas families and not special interests.

Bill Halter also released a statement about the John Brummett story that we covered here yesterday. Here is the press release:

What You Won’t Hear Senator Blanche Lincoln Say

For Immediate Release
Wednesday, March 31, 2010

What You Won’t Hear Senator Blanche Lincoln Say

“Unfortunately this campaign has taken a negative tone in recent days, and Senator Lincoln’s campaign is spreading lies and flat out misleading folks on my history. This is not the same Blanche Lincoln I used to know.”

North Little Rock – Yesterday, one of Arkansas leading columnists noted the negative tone Senator Lincoln’s campaign has taken in releasing a misleading television ad, several mailers with flat out falsehoods, and a website that smears Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

In his article “Blanche Goes Bogus,” John Brummett of the Arkansas News Bureau says, “Lincoln’s first salvo was dishonest. The second was a smear.”

Brummett goes on to say, “This is the cynical demonization process that is part of a cancer on our politics. It’s not enough to distinguish yourself from your opponent by performance and policy. You must delve into his past and overstate any association that might make him seem more than someone with whom you merely disagree, but someone who is a sinister threat, near-criminal.”

Brummett continues, “It’s Blanche, actually, who has a public record that is obliging to multi-national corporations and drug companies. That doesn’t make her a bad person. It makes her a bit of a Republican.

“A confirmed Washington insider – that’s all she was, and is,” Brummett concludes.

Today Halter responded noting, “I am disappointed in the path Senator Lincoln has chosen. This is not the Blanche Lincoln I used to know.”

Continued Halter, “In 1999 I was pleased when Senator Lincoln introduced me for my Senate confirmation hearing as the Deputy Commissioner of Social Security. Then, Senator Lincoln seemed to have a very different opinion of me than what she is saying now. It’s unfortunate that Senator Lincoln has chosen this route. I never viewed this as a race against her, but rather an election for the people of Arkansas.”

Said Halter campaign manager Carol Butler, “In 1999, Senator Lincoln sang a different tune. Then she called Lt. Gov. Halter, ‘a good friend,’ ‘one of the best and brightest and most productive,’ and noted that he ‘can definitely bring about results and work hard towards solutions’.

Butler continued, “Lt. Gov. Halter found those solutions when her served in the Social Security Administration. He protected Social Security from Republican privatization schemes. Now he is ready to go to Washington and clean up the mess that is currently putting Wall Street interests ahead of folks here in Arkansas.”

Senator Lincoln’s testimony from the Halter confirmation hearings is attached.

This goes so well with my post yesterday about Blanche Lincoln’s pattern of attacking former allies.

Ponder comes clean. His crime? Leadership and accountability to the people of AR-01:

MESASGE FROM BEN PONDER

Because of the timing of Congressman Berry’s retirement announcement,
this is an extremely compressed primary campaign schedule. Everything
moves very fast. Unfortunately, there is no independent “Commission on
Congressional Debates” to serve as an intermediary between the
campaigns. The media organizations, which normally would set up the
debates, are hampered by a lack of time and resources and the
challenge of coordination between six hectic campaigns. This is the
“state of the debates” for the Democrats in District 1:

In mid-February, I conferred with Chad Causey, and we agreed that it
would be a good idea to debate the issues in a series of public
forums. On March 9, the Causey campaign issued a press release calling
for a series of three debates before the May 18 primary election. In
that release, he called for “an open and honest discussion about the
issues facing Arkansans.” A flurry of emails to the press ensued. But
then two weeks passed without communication between the campaigns. My
campaign manager then spoke with Chad’s campaign manager, and it
became evident that little progress had been made toward scheduling
the debates—primarily because of a lack of responsiveness from the
other campaigns. It became clear to me that unless one of the
candidates took on this issue personally that the primary would come
and go without Arkansas voters getting the chance to hear the
Democratic Congressional candidates’ views and positions on the
issues.

I took on that challenge—in the midst of conducting a busy campaign
myself—because political debates are fundamental to the process of
free and fair elections upon which our democracy is established. We
are not running for Senior Class President where the election is a
referendum on our popularity or coolness. We are running for the
United States Congress. After the general election in November,
Arkansas’ First District will send a new congressman to Washington,
someone who has never before served in that office. We are all
unproven in that regard. Our new congressman will not be judged on his
or her ability to shake hands and smile for cameras. Our next
congressman will be judged on his or her ability to grasp and
articulate the urgent issues affecting our nation and to work
effectively for positive change on behalf of constituents in Arkansas’
First District. How will voters know which of the candidates will do
that most forcefully without our debating the issues and answering
hard questions during the primary? And let me stress: candidate “meet
and greets,” though valuable, are no substitute for substantive
debates.

I have personally spoken with a representative of each campaign and
most of the candidates themselves on multiple occasions as I’ve worked
to set a framework for the debates. We were originally trying to
schedule the first debate as early as this week, but we switched the
date when it became clear that multiple candidates had a conflict. We
were unaware of any potential conflicts with the Bryles and Wooldridge
campaigns because we never received word back from them—phone calls
were not returned and emails were not replied to.

I am serving the voters of the First District and also my fellow
candidates by facilitating the scheduling of these debates. The
insinuation that I have somehow commandeered the campaign schedule is
both inaccurate and disingenuous. I have worked closely and
collaboratively with each of the campaigns to the extent that they
would reciprocate. I have personally coordinated with the Baxter
County Democrats, ASU Mountain Home, KTLO, the Baxter Bulletin, the
Jonesboro Sun, the ASU Jonesboro Political Science Department, the
Young Democrats of Arkansas, the Lonoke Leadership Class, and with our
peer campaigns. I have sent out a general framework for the debates to
the other campaigns for their ideas, feedback, and assistance in
coordination.

With regard to the first debate in Mountain Home, I received advance
commitments from ASU Mountain Home, the Baxter County Democrats, KTLO,
and the Baxter Bulletin that they would serve as hosts or sponsors.
Each organization was thrilled to participate. The press release from
my campaign was designed to assist those organizations with getting
the word out, not to commit them to anything new or different. I
apologize for the inadvertent early timing of the release from our
campaign and if the prose regarding the debate was unclear. We did not
intend to imply that the candidates had committed formally to the
debate but rather that the debate was geared specifically for the
Democratic field (an issue that had arisen in the planning of other
debates). I have coordinated with each of the campaigns and had
received word from the Causey, Cook, and Green campaigns that they
were eager to participate in this first debate. Our campaign (as did
others) committed early on to proceeding with any debate if we had
four candidates able to attend.

With that said, I have communicated with each of the campaigns and
have offered to reschedule the Mountain Home debate to ensure that all
six candidates are able to attend. Our campaigns are currently working
to coordinate the dates of the debates (including the one in Baxter
County) to guarantee maximum participation. When that date is set, the
host organizations and/or media sponsors will issue formal invitations
and a press release.

We’ve gotten the ball rolling with this first debate in Mountain Home,
and we welcome the involvement of the other campaigns in coordinating
the details of subsequent debates. Currently, I know that debates in
Jonesboro, Lonoke, and West Memphis are in the works. Because the
campaigns were not initially involved in the scheduling of the
debates, there quickly arose a conflict between the Jonesboro and
Lonoke debates. I have personally worked to resolve this conflict so
that both debates can proceed. I have also reached out to my fellow
candidates and encouraged them to set up a debate with media coverage
in their respective parts of the district. Anders Reynolds from the
Causey campaign has graciously agreed to coordinate a debate in
eastern Arkansas tentatively scheduled for April 29. In the event that
other debates are scheduled in Blytheville, Paragould, Williford, or
anywhere else, I will make every effort to adjust my campaign calendar
in order to attend. If I cannot attend personally, I will make sure to
send a trusted representative of my campaign to participate in my
stead.

That’s where we are as of March 31. In the event that we cannot get
100% participation in future debates because of scheduling conflicts,
I hope that any candidates who are unable to attend will value the
process and the voters enough to send a representative to the debate.
Whether in Mountain Home or in any other part of the district, our
campaign is eager to engage in a frank discussion about the values,
ideas, and solutions that will best represent Arkansans in Washington.

No outside party is going to organize a debate and herd these clowns into it. Ponder took leadership in trying to get this together, and while he may not have done the best job at it, particularly in counting his chickens before they had hatched, it’s Wooldridge and Bryles that are looking the worst from all this.

Ben Ponder obviously thinks of politics in a higher fashion than we’re used to in this district. He could have just run his campaign and avoided saying anything on the issues like most everyone else in Arkansas politics, but instead he tried to organize a debate. And while that high mindedness sometimes translates into him talking a little too much when he should be more blunt, as seen above, it is refreshing to see someone trying to lead and encourage accountability to the public in this race.

You would think they’d learn after the health care debate, but nooooooo.  Here we go out the door on energy and the environment, giving things up to the Republicans and conservative Democrats making what was looking like a mediocre bill into a bad bill.

First, Obama has announced an expansion of offshore drilling. In other words, we’re going to be tearing up the continental shelf, damaging the environment of our oceans (and the parts of our economy that depend on them, like the fishing industry) and keeping us hooked on fossil fuels in the process. Chris Bowers nails this for what it is, fruit being dangled in front of the conservadems and Lindsey Graham. Now, I would be fine with that if, in the course of negotiations, that was offered as a way of getting the bill through. I could deal with that. But right out of the gate like this? This is the same stupid crap that we saw in the health care debate. Did Obama and his administration learn nothing?

Worse yet is the death of cap and trade.

“I think the term ‘cap and trade’ is not in the lexicon anymore,” Salazar said, adding that supporters — including senators working on legislation — will focus more on ideas such as slowing pollution, creating jobs and becoming energy independent. “It’s in that context” the Senate will move forward, he said.

In other words, the big oil companies and the teabaggers and the Republicans that work for both of them managed to scare the administration. Bye bye meaningful climate legislation, hello the future from hell. Thank you President Obama for selling out our planet and our future.

Thanks to commenter hxs01 for pointing this out.

Arkansas Blog

FROM BEN PONDER

We have strong commitments from Causey, Cook, Green, and myself.
That’s officially a quorum. I’m still working on Wooldridge and
Bryles. I will talk with both again sometime this afternoon. The
debate will happen. I hope both choose to participate.

As you know, it’s herding cats to get six campaigns to agree to
anything. We’re trying to get four debates set: Mountain Home,
Jonesboro, Lonoke, and West Memphis. Lots of moving parts, but I’m
working hard on it–personally–because I think it’s imperative that
we talk seriously about the issues facing our country right now.
There’s too much at stake in this election to evade the issues upon
which history will judge us.

So basically, what seems to be going on here is that we have Ponder being a leader in getting a debate going. He has sent invitations to all candidates and gotten strong commitments from enough candidates to hold the debate. Two candidates appear to be attempting to avoid this debate, Tim Wooldridge and Steve Bryles.

So it looks like Ponder did the right thing in getting an official debate going and the attacks on him are really just attempts to get out of the debate. Apparently, Bryles’ campaign tried to use some sly language to suggest he was never invited by slipping the word “official” in front of invitation.

Arkansas Blog – Bill Paschal (for Steve Bryles)

As of this morning my friend and client, Steve Bryles, has not received an official invitation to debate from ASU-Mt. Home or KTLO radio… Bryles will not be able to participate in the Mt. Home debate on the date picked by Ponder. He has a long standing event planned that evening in a far corner of the district…

As far as Steve Bryles’ pressing prior engagement is concerned… I don’t think anything is more pressing than a debate. Can’t it be rescheduled? Who is more important, a select group of individuals or the entire district getting to see you on television debating your peers? I think the answer to that is pretty easy. Although, I would like to know just what event is already scheduled. To his credit, Paschal did say that Bryles will debate at some point in the future.

Update:
Reminder that the debate is set for Tuesday, April 6th.

I mean it.  At his appearance at the Arkansas Farm Bureau today Governor Beebe continued lying to the people of Arkansas.

Beebe continued his tired and unsupported complaint that an influx of billions in new health spending in poor Arkansas could somehow be damaging to the state when the new state costs (a mere 10 percent of the federal outlay) kick in TEN YEARS FROM NOW.

I get that the Governor doesn’t want this issue intruding in on his campaign as he really doesn’t have anything to do with it.  He would have that luxury if he had an opponent who A) actually knew something about the U.S. Constitution and B) wasn’t a shameless, desperate demagogue begging for the votes of the fringe right, much less attention.  Unfortuneatly for the Governor, he doesn’t have that opponent.  He has Jim Keet.  Still, a lie is a lie, and I refuse to believe for a second that, with the resources at the Governor’s office disposal, he can’t do a simple fact check on something so important and is simply misinformed.

I support Governor Beebe in his reelection campaign.  I will vote for him for a second term, especially considering how ridiculous his opposition is.  But he should still be held accountable.  The health care reform passed by Congress and signed by President Obama will help Arkansans in need.  That’s healthy Arkansans who will be able to contribute more to the state’s economy, who the state of Arkansas won’t have to worry about providing for.  And while I could be wrong about this, if memory serves Governor Beebe promised in 2006 to insure every child in Arkansas, a promise he hasn’t kept, and considering the budget crunch the economy has us in he shouldn’t be expected to be able to keep.  For that reason alone, he should be openly thankful and supportive of the health care bill.

It occurred to me that we haven’t updated the Bill Halter issue positions of late and, while I don’t have much to add, there are a few new things.  So here goes, new stuff in italics.

Health care:
-supports a government run, medicare like public option that people can buy into
-wants to focus heavily on preventive medicine
-reduce costs through modern technology

Workers rights:
-supports the right of workers to unionize
-wants to crack down on workplace intimidation
-supports the Employee Free Choice Act and has hopes for the new, post card check compromise

Environment and energy:
-iffy on cap and trade
-does not support Murkowski-Lincoln effort to weaken CO2 regulation
-supports investment in clean energy

Taxes
-friendly to middle class tax reduction
-opposes elimination of the estate tax
-supports eliminating corporate tax loopholes that promote outsourcing

Social Security
-opposes privatization of social security

LGBT issues
-opposed Act 1
-supports repealing DADT
-supports the right of same sex couples to have certain contractual rights, but stops short or endorsing marriage equality

Abortion
-supports keeping Roe v. Wade as law of the land
-personally against abortion but unwilling to infringe on the rights of others to choose
-for finding measures to reduce the number of abortions that both sides can agree upon

Education
-championed the lottery scholarships program
-strong supporter of pre-K programs
-supports student loan reform

Update: It dawned on me that I initially didn’t include his support for student loan reform in the update.  That’s fixed now.

This was nice to read this morning:

The Washington Post today draws the parallel — with help from Gov. Mike Beebe and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel — between the failed fight to prevent school desegregation in Little Rock and the current uproar over health legislation.

“They tried it here in Arkansas in ‘57 and it didn’t work,” Gov. Mike Beebe (D) told reporters recently. “I think you got to tell people the truth. And if I understand the law, the truth is the federal government can’t just be defied by the state governments.”

… “I would be abusing my office to bring a suit that I believe to be constitutionally frivolous,” McDaniel said in a telephone interview. “State budgets are tight enough right now without bringing actions that are entirely driven by political motivation rather than sound legal justification.”

I’ll have a little something on Mike Beebe and telling the truth a little later…But that aside, I am pleased to see that niether the Governor or our Attorney General are caving to the wingnuts on this issue. We’ve already discussed how health care reform is constitutional here, and regardless of how much Jim Keet and his ilk pander to the teabaggers on this one all they’re going to do is make it clear just how much they don’t understand their own country’s constitution.

Ok, I have to take issue with just one line of Brummett’s recent article, but understand, it’s more a shot at a general notion than anything directed at Brummett:

It takes some doing to make a sympathetic figure of Halter — cold, humorless and imperious opportunist that he be.

Okay, since 2006, a lot of folks have had a fair share of things to say about Bill Halter being aloof, thin skinned and a number of other things. I want to say just two things on that.

First, I met Halter back in 2006, and I was sceptical at first. When I shook his hand and got a cordial comment in he responded and moved on, leaving me feeling a little cheated. Since then though, that scepticism has been entirely dissolved. The Bill Halter we have seen on the stump now is much better at retail politics than he used to be, and I can say from talking to him personally and spending a fair amount of time in the same room with him that he is genuinely a much warmer human being than his reputation leads people to suspect.

Secondly, if you can’t bring yourself to vote for Bill because you didn’t like his demeanor at some meeting or whatever, please do us all a favor and grow up. There are more important things at stake here than what someone’s personality is like or an impression you got from one meeting. That’s all I’ll say.

Bill Halter will be having a campaign rally in Fayetteville on April 6th.

Facebook Event

Type: Causes – Rally
Date: Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Time: 5:00pm – 7:00pm
Location: Uncle Gaylord’s Mountain Cafe
Street: 315 West Mountain Street
City/Town: Fayetteville, AR

View Map

Please join us on Tuesday for a campaign rally in Northwest Arkansas with Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, candidate for United States Senate.

Blue Arkansas will be there reporting on the event. Invite your friends:
Facebook Event

This really is something we should talk more about…and something the state of Arkansas should do something about.

The lawyer (and former LR cop) who brought the successful racial profiling case against Alexander police told a state panel yesterday that racial profiling is a statewide problem.

No doubt.

Our Spanish-language newspaper hears repeated complaint from all over the state about local cops’ use of profiling as a municipal money-raising tool. In a small Delta town with a handful of immigrants, for example, you can imagine how quickly cops come to know local residents and know that a Hispanic driver is likely undocumented and thus without a driver’s license. Quick ticket, quick fine. I know — no license, don’t drive. But suppose your regular driver is sick and the only safety net for your family is that job at the chicken plant? You drive and take your chances.

And let’s not forget the folks guilty of driving while black while we’re at it. This is something Arkansas, among other states, really needs to get under control.

A story over at TPMDC brings up the constantly contradictory behavior of Blanche Lincoln over the past year. This includes both contradictions in her voting record and the effects on her campaign.

Brian Beutler

…

The streak continues: Lincoln has taken to attacking “Washington, D.C. unions” for supporting Halter in the primary–but only after publicly soliciting their support herself.

All of these examples point to the fact that for the past year, Lincoln has been thinking only one step ahead–and when confronted with unforeseen circumstances, abruptly switches course, without regard for the lengthy paper trail behind her. It’s been a bumpy journey.

All in all, though, it’s unclear how Lincoln’s swerving has affected her re-election prospects. Recent polling data indicates that her lead over Halter is shrinking and her disapproval ratings remain sky high. But they also show her gaining ground on her likely general election opponent, state Rep. John Boozman.

…

I am glad he calls her out for her obvious sore loser tactics in attacking national unions after having lost their endorsement to Halter. She is all for them when they endorse her, but when they choose someone else, they are the source of all that is wrong in politics according to her. This is really becoming a pattern for Lincoln. She betrays a base of her support, they don’t take it lying down, then she attacks her former allies as the source of all that ails us. She is losing a lot of allies in a very important time in her political career.

What allies she is relying on is the Arkansas Democratic political establishment. This can be seen most directly in Mark Pryor’s strange vote against the reconciliation fixes to health care reform:

Brian Beutler

…

Also in January, with the fate of health care on the line, Lincoln leapt to the front of the pack to announce her opposition to using the reconciliation process to fix the Senate bill, which serves as the basis of reform. This put her in the strange position of having voted for a major health care overhaul–complete with controversial provisions like the ‘Cornhusker Kickback’–only to turn around oppose the one viable effort to make the bill more popular.

Early on it looked like several conservative Democrats might join Lincoln in opposing the reconciliation route, but when it came time to vote, almost all Democrats voted to pass the package of fixes. The exceptions were Nelson, Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), and Lincoln herself. After the vote, Pryor issued a statement arguing that the reconciliation bill wasn’t in Arkansas’ best interest. But Senate aides say his vote was designed to give Lincoln cover. She had dug herself in too deeply change course.

…

The report suggests that Mark Pryor voted against taking out the “Cornhusker Kickback” just to try to deflect some blame from Lincoln because she had already committed to voting against the bill (even though it made the bill more popular). If this is true, both of our U.S. Senators actually supported the bill. Blanche Lincoln only voted against it because she had already taken a right wing turn she couldn’t go back on. Pryor only voted against it to help out someone else in the Arkansas Democratic establishment. This is exactly what this primary election is about. Arkansas was simply not being represented in the Senate for this vote. Even though Arkansans and Arkansas Democrats in large margins (and apparently the Senators themselves) supported the fixes, they voted against the bill for purely questionable political reasons.

Another example of her attacking her former allies is the speech/question she gave to Obama about how we need to stand up to “extremists” in our own party, like the League of Conservation Voters who dared to question her commitment to the environment when she consistently voted against its best interests.

The most glaring example is her double back on the public option, going from a supporter of the policy to so adamantly against it that she is willing to filibuster the entirety of health care reform to stop it. The switch was so stark that her website still declared her support for the public option as she announced her intent to filibuster health care reform over it in late November. I recall her voting against the public option earlier than that though. She voted against it in the Senate Finance Committee (by proxy of course) and neglected to say why she did so. She did that while she was still on the record as supporting the public option. I called her office and was told by a higher up that she only voted against it because she didn’t think it could get the votes. So, either she never intended to support the public option or she changed her mind over time, but I am pretty sure the answer I received was a blow off since they just didn’t really want to explain her reasons for opposition. Maybe it has something to do with all those donations from the health insurance industry?

Beutler notes that Blanche Lincoln has gained on the Republicans, but so has Bill Halter. This is as I said over a month ago when a particularly bad poll for Democrats came out.

February 2nd, 2010

We must assume that things will change as time moves on. Any Democrat will close this gap with Boozman unless they run a horrible campaign.

The success of the Health Care Reform bill (despite Blanche Lincoln) will help Democrats in November by both increasing Democrats’ likelihood to turn out and by showing they are able to govern. The content of the bill will also be a plus for those who supported it and may help win over some independents in the long run.

Anyway, the point here is that it wasn’t Lincoln’s swing to the right that helped her against the Republicans. The positive movement in the polls is better explained by an improvement in the view of Democrats in general, reflected in Halter’s even better upwards movement. The swing to the right does alienate her base. This is reflected by Halter’s ease of picking up strong momentum against an incumbent Senator in such a short period of time. That would likely also effect turn out in November if Lincoln is the nominee. But as the polls show, Halter also has the advantage over Republicans even without the turnout argument.

These points just further show Lincoln’s inconsistency and tendency to turn on her former allies. The Arkansas Democratic establishment is doing its best to protect her, but the more people hear about Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, they more they like, giving him the momentum.